Canada's Changing International Trade Landscape- Opportunities, Threats and Forgone Opportunities for the Beef Industry

The Canadian beef industry is an important contributor to Canada’s agricultural sector and beef exports represent a significant proportion of production. Canada was engaged with eleven other Pacific Rim countries negotiating the Trans Pacific Partnership. A number of these countries are major producers and exporters of beef, or major potential markets for beef. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) could potentially lead to a major re-alignment of beef trade across the Pacific. Under NAFTA, Canada and Mexico currently have tariff-free access to the United States market, however, under the TPP that preferred access would extend to include all member countries, including large global competitors. Canada’s international trade landscape under which the Canadian beef industry must operate may change in important ways in the near future. The Trans Pacific Partnership agreement provided additional opportunities for the beef industry, which may now be forgone in the wake of the US presidential election of 2016. During the US election, there were explicit references to either re-negotiating NAFTA or “tearing it up”. This thesis provides an analysis of the various possible effects on Canadian beef trade based on a variety of trade agreement outcome scenarios by adapting the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Analysis (GSIM) model for the analysis. This single product, multi-region model provided trade and welfare results that can be compared between various scenarios. The scenarios in this thesis depend upon the future of NAFTA and the potential evolution of the TPP and provide a comparison of multiple possible outcomes. Ultimately, the TPP is good for Canada’s beef exports and the loss of the U.S. preferential treatment under NAFTA has the largest potential for a negative impact on Canada’s beef industry