Carbon lock-in or varieties of lock-in? – A study of the consequences of fossil fuel dependency on renewable energy policy

Fossil fuel dependency, conceptualized by the theory of carbon lock-in, is an often cited explanation for resistance to change in the study of sustainable energy transitions. Although the concept of carbon lock-in provides a good description of the situation in many industrialized countries today, there are several unanswered questions regarding its impli-cations for the politics of energy transition and the development of climate and energy policy. This thesis seeks to understand to what degree and in what ways carbon lock-in may influence renewable energy policy by performing a comparative case study of the renewable energy policy development in three countries that feature characteristics of carbon lock-in. The mechanisms that lead to carbon lock-in are assumed to create mutual dependencies between fossil fuel industries and policymakers, and sustaining lock-in is therefore beneficial for these actors. Furthermore, they are assumed to form a fossil fuel industry-policymaker complex resistant to change towards renewable energies. In this thesis I find support for the expectation that renewable energy policies develop in a way that does not challenge the core interests of this complex in coal dominated Australia and Poland. Norway is a slightly different case. Although it holds important characteristics of a carbon locked-in country due to its high dependency on the petroleum sector in its economy, the electricity sector is almost carbon-free. However, the strong dependency on hydropower in the electricity sector in Norway seems to produce the same type of mechanisms as observed in the cases where fossil fuels dominate electricity generation. Hence, these findings illustrate the need to distinguish between different types of energy related lock-ins, rather than assuming an overall carbon lock-in. Taking into account the potential variety of energy related lock-ins and the particular political and economic interests of the actors that may benefit from sustaining such lock-ins, may provide us with new insights about the development of climate and energy policy required for energy transition. This can help us take a step beyond the generic conclusion that carbon lock-in produces resistance to change towards low-carbon energy sources, and improve our understanding of why resistance to such change persists in some country contexts and not in others