Implications of private sector participation in power generation a case study from India

India suffers from widespread shortages of electricity supply. These shortages, among others, are detrimental to the economic growth. The prospects for the next decade do not seem to be much brighter. Efforts in expanding generation capacity by the state-owned electric utilities are hampered by severe resource constraints. Against this backdrop, to mobilize additional resources to help bridge the gap in demand and supply, the Government of India formulated a policy in 1991 with the objective to encourage greater investment by private enterprises in the electricity sector. To study the implications of such an initiative on various stakeholders, viz., public utilities, consumers and private sector, the present paper tries to analyse issues like planned rationing, guarantees to private sector, backing down of existing capacity. Using the state of Karnataka (in Southern India) as a case study, the paper develops multiple scenarios using an integrated mixed integer-programming model. The results show the advantage of marginal non-supply (rationing) of electricity in terms of achieving overall effective supply demand matching as well as providing economic benefits to the state that could be generated through cost savings. The results also show the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and the new public capacity. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees are found to be significantly high. For 2011-12, depending on the type of scenarios, the estimated generation and economic losses are likely to be in the range of 3200-10,000 GWh and Rs. 4200-13,600 million respectively. The impact of these losses on the consumers could be in terms of significant increase in energy bills (in the range of 19-40% for different scenarios) due to rise in tariffs