Of Navies and Power Transition: The United States, Naval Power, and the Rise of China

"This paper analyzes the naval variable in the current U.S.-China relationship and addresses these questions in five sections. First, I elaborate on the role of naval power and its enduring importance in the face of air power, nuclear weapons, and globalization. Second, I discuss what the current U.S. threat perception is and its contributing factors. I argue that, as of spring 2009, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy does not present a general naval threat to the United States. This is due to a PLA Navy modernization effort that has been partially ineffective and that is aimed primarily at Taiwan rather than global power projection. Third, I outline the steps China’s navy would take for the United States to develop a threat perception sufficient to alter its China policy. Fourth, I discuss policy implications for the U.S.-China relationship in the event of a naval arms race. Finally, I examine the theoretical implications that this chapter holds for the United States, China, and international relations and the power transitions that could occur therein.."--from pages 104-10