Role Of Word-Of-Mouth For Programs Of Voluntary Vaccination: A Game-Theoretic Approach

The final publication is available at Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2015.08.023 © 2015. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/We propose a model describing the synergetic feedback between word-of-mouth (WoM) and epidemic dynamics controlled by voluntary vaccination. The key feature consists in combining a game-theoretic model for the spread of WoM and a compartmental model describing VSIR disease dynamics in the presence of a program of voluntary vaccination. We evaluate and compare two scenarios for determinants of behavior, depending on what WoM disseminates: (1) vaccine advertising, which may occur whether or not an epidemic is ongoing and (2) epidemic status, notably disease prevalence. Understanding the synergy between the two strategies could be particularly important for designing voluntary vaccination campaigns. We find that, in the initial phase of an epidemic, vaccination uptake is determined more by vaccine advertising than the epidemic status. As the epidemic progresses, epidemic status becomes increasingly important for vaccination uptake, considerably accelerating vaccination uptake toward a stable vaccination coverage