Potential for dairy exports to the UK post-brexit : bilateral partial equilibrium modeling in the presence of trade barriers

Abstract from public.pdf.The United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union has potential effects on the impacts of future trade between the United States and the United Kingdom. Import demand systems were created to develop a model that estimates imports, exports, ending stocks, prices, consumption and production for the UK cheese and butter market. Three scenarios are created to consider the estimated effects of Brexit on the UK, US, EU and rest of world dairy industry. Results are then compared to the baseline projections. The scenarios result in an increase in the UK cheese and butter price. They also suggest there is potential for an increase in cheese and butter imports from the US which could be beneficial for US producers