Increasing powers to reject licences to sell alcohol: Impacts on availability, sales and behavioural outcomes from a novel natural experiment evaluation.

Excessive alcohol consumption leads to negative health and social impacts at individual and population levels. Interventions that aim to limit the density of alcohol retail premises (including cumulative impact policies (CIPs)) have been associated with decreases in alcohol-related crime and alcohol-related hospital admissions. We evaluated the quantitative impact of introducing a new alcohol licensing policy that included a comprehensive Cumulative Impact Policy (CIP) enforced in seven Cumulative Impact Zones (CIZs) in one English Local Authority in 2013. We used time series analysis to assess immediate and longer term impacts on licensing decisions and intermediate outcomes, including spatial and temporal alcohol availability, crime, alcohol-related ambulance call-outs and on-licence alcohol retail sales across the Local Authority and in CIZs and non-CIZs during the period 2008 to 2016. We found no impact on licence application rates but post-intervention applications involved fewer trading hours. Application approvals declined initially but not over the longer term. Longer term, small reductions in units of alcohol sold in bars (-2060, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -3033, -1087) were observed in areas with more intensive licensing policies ('Cumulative Impact Zones' (CIZs)). Significant initial declines in overall crime rates (CIZs = -12.2%, 95% CI = -18.0%, -6.1%; non-CIZs = -8.0%, 95% CI = -14.0%, -1.6%) were only partially reversed by small, longer term increases. Ambulance callout rates did not change significantly. The intervention was partially successful but a more intensive and sustained implementation may be necessary for longer term benefits