Darfur: Counting the deaths: Mortality estimates from multiple survey data

The exact number of deaths in the Darfur region due to the conflict will probably never be known. But most certainly, it is far too many. Estimating mortality in conflicts is a notoriously difficult exercise, even more so in Darfur where the conditions causing death are extremely variable. Malnutrition, epidemics and violence occur sporadically, claiming many lives in some areas and none in others. Recognising the importance of tracking mortality and estimating deaths, humanitarian aid agencies working in the region have undertaken mortality surveys among their beneficiaries at different times to assess the condition of their status and the severity of the crises. These are based on sound statistical and epidemiological techniques and provide insights into the varying levels of mortality over the entire region. Estimating numbers of deaths from surveys depends on representativeness of the sample, double counting of deaths, under or over-reporting by respondents. Another key concern is that intensity of the conflict varies over time and in different areas of Darfur and therefore a blanket application of rates from a few surveys will invariably distort results. The humanitarian assistance, although slow in early stages, since the first half of 2004 in Darfur has been massive and is widely acknowledged to have saved many lives. As humanitarian needs continue to grow the situation today is deteriorating again and it is clear to the authors that humanitarian aid has to be increased and important international measures to end the aggression must be taken. From a majority of deaths being caused by military/violence in the wars in the first half of the 20th century, armed conflicts over the last 20 years have taken their toll among the civil populations. Disease and malnutrition have been the main causes of deaths among civilians in most of the major conflicts of the past two decades. These include deaths due to lack of access to health care, to food or harvests leading to starvation, dehydration and disease during displacement. Direct war-related violence on civilians leading to death (massacres, shootings), while heinous, contributes a small part of the total deaths, but remains the only direct evidence of the blunt hostility of armed groups on unarmed inhabitants. 6 In this paper we present two alternate methods that were used to calculate estimations of mortality in Darfur. The first one was elaborated by epidemiologists at the Brussels-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). The second one was performed by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. In summary, the CRED method estimated approximately 134,000 total deaths in Darfur and Eastern Chad over the 17 months from September 2003 to January 2005. Of these deaths, 120,000 were excess deaths directly attributable to the conflict, 35,000 of which were violent deaths. The US State Department method estimated a possible range of 98,000 – 181,000 total deaths over 23 months - from March 2003 to January 2005. Estimates of excess deaths due to the conflict ranged from 63,000 – 146,000 over the same period