Add to ORKGIn this work we first replicate the results of fully parametric dynamic probit model for forecasting US recessions from Kauppi and Saikkonen (2008) (which is in the spirit of Estrella and Mishkin (1995, 1998) and Dueker (1997)) and then contrast them to results from nonparametric local-likelihood dynamic choice model for the same data. We then use expanded data to get some insights on whether these models could have warned the public about the latest recession, associated with the global financial crisis. Finally, we also apply both approaches to get some insights about 2018
This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in...
In this paper, I use a large set of macroeconomic and financial predictors to forecast U.S. recessio...
An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP suggests the COVID-19 recession wa...
In this work, we first replicate the results of the fully parametric dynamic probit model for foreca...
We develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting U.S. recessions using the inte...
This paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast Canadia...
This paper analyses to what extent a selection of leading indicators is able to forecast U.S. recess...
This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its ...
We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time i...
This study examines the predictive ability of a wide set of variables to predict Korean recessions b...
Recently De Luca and Carfora (Statistica e Applicazioni 8:123–134, 2010) have proposed a novel model...
This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit basedtime...
This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period...
Recent research provides controversial evidence on the stability of yield-curve based binary probit ...
The goal of this thesis is to answer the question what is the probability that the U.S. economy will...
This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in...
In this paper, I use a large set of macroeconomic and financial predictors to forecast U.S. recessio...
An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP suggests the COVID-19 recession wa...
In this work, we first replicate the results of the fully parametric dynamic probit model for foreca...
We develop dynamic binary probit models and apply them for predicting U.S. recessions using the inte...
This paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast Canadia...
This paper analyses to what extent a selection of leading indicators is able to forecast U.S. recess...
This paper advances beyond the prediction of the probability of a recession by also considering its ...
We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time i...
This study examines the predictive ability of a wide set of variables to predict Korean recessions b...
Recently De Luca and Carfora (Statistica e Applicazioni 8:123–134, 2010) have proposed a novel model...
This article surveys both earlier and recent research on recession forecasting with probit basedtime...
This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period...
Recent research provides controversial evidence on the stability of yield-curve based binary probit ...
The goal of this thesis is to answer the question what is the probability that the U.S. economy will...
This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in...
In this paper, I use a large set of macroeconomic and financial predictors to forecast U.S. recessio...
An updated version of our Markov-switching model of U.S. real GDP suggests the COVID-19 recession wa...