Massive Migration and Elections: Evidence from the Refugee Crisis in Greece

This article explores whether the massive arrival of refugees at Greek islands has had an impact on natives’ voting behaviour. Our results show a positive and significant effect of refugees’ presence on votes for the Greek extreme-right party Golden Dawn. More precisely, we find that a 1 per cent increase in the share of refugees is associated with an increase of 5 per cent in the share of votes for Golden Dawn. This outcome is robust under different estimation methodologies and placebo regressions