Predicting Future Blood Demand from Thalassemia Major Patients in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, thalassemia major (TM) patients utilized up to 9.5% of blood supply in 2009. For long-term management of blood supply, we predicted the future blood demand of TM patients for the next 10 years.Annual individual transfusion data in 2005–2009 and demographic information of 381 TM patients were obtained from the Hong Kong Red Cross Blood Transfusion Service database. A generalized estimating equation (GEE) model was fitted to establish the potential relations of blood demand with age, sex, body weight, year of transfusion and splenectomy, accounted for within-patient correlation. The fitted model was used to predict future blood demand for the existing patients by accounting for expected change in body weight and mortality rate. We also predicted the number of new cases in the future based on age- and sex-specific TM incidence and official population projections. Future blood demand was predicted by combining blood demand from the existing and new patients. Female (RR = 0.94, p = 0.006) and history of splenectomy (RR = 0.85, p