Art investment as a portfolio diversification strategy in South Africa

publisher versionArt has been suggested as a good way to diversify investment portfolios during times of financial uncertainty. The argument is that art exhibits different risk and return characteristics to conventional investments in other asset classes. The new Citadel Art Price index offered the opportunity to test this theory in the South African context. The Citadel index uses the hedonic regression method with observations drawn from the top 100, 50 and 20 artists by sales volume, giving approximately 29 503 total auction observations. The Index consists of quarterly data from the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3. A VAR of the art price index, Johannesburg Stock Exchange all-share index, house price index, and South African government bond index were used. Flowing from the VAR results, additional analyses included variance decomposition, impulse response, and, to determine volatility, variance and standard deviation measures for each index. Results show that, when there are increased returns on the stock market in the previous period and wealth increases, there is a change in the Citadel Art Price Index in the same direction. This finding is consistent with Goetzmann et al. (2009), who reported that there is a strong relationship between art and equity markets and that art price changes are driven by capital gains and losses. No significant difference was found between the house price index and the art price index, and neither between the art and government bond price indices. Overall, the South African art market does not offer the opportunity to diversify portfolios dominated by either property, bonds, or shares