A model study on the effect of water and cold stress on maize development under nemoral climate

Farmers in northern latitudes face significant risks because of low temperatures and water shortage when attempting to benefit from climate warming by expanding maize for grain. The study was aimed to investigate maize development and suitability of two models to simulate maize growth in a cool climate.Field experiments were conducted at the Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry on sandy loam soil. Management was performed to guarantee optimum growth. The AquaCrop and AgroC models were calibrated and validated using the data sets from 2015 (cool/dry season) and 2016 (warm/wet), respectively.Both models provided adequate results in terms of simulating total above-ground biomass, grain yield, canopy cover, and soil water content. Grain yield losses due to abiotic stress (low temperature and water shortage) simulated with AquaCrop were 3.41 t ha−1 in cool/dry and 2.02 t ha−1 in warm/wet seasons and for AgroC 4.32 and 2.84 t ha−1, respectively.Maize grain yield above 9 t ha−1 (dry weight) was obtained under favourable temperature and rainfall regime in nemoral climate. Low air temperature, is the main factor defining yield losses, while the water stress, which occurs occasionally, is of secondary importance