Challenges of Reforming the Welfare State: Four Essays on the Impact of Institutional Reforms on Individuals in Germany

In the first part of this doctoral thesis we analyse changes in old-age income risk in Germany using micro-simulation model due to changes in employment patterns and institutional reforms. We focus on the statutory pension scheme and we analyse the old-age income risk of individuals as well as of households with respect to the skill level. Our findings help to clarify the risk of post-retirement poverty for specific household constellations We find that the risk of old-age poverty will increase for almost all new pensioners in 2020-2022 compared to new pensioners in 2004-2006. Due to the characteristics of a PAYG pension system, political decision-makers have to improve labour market participation, e.g. by support the improvement of skill level. Moreover we take a closer look at the impact of the Hartz-Reforms on wages. We use panel data to estimate the effect of the structural break on wages and find strong evidence that the decrease in unemployment benefit lowered wages. Our findings show that the Hartz-Reform induced wage restraint and may also be partly responsible for the favourable labour market situation in Germany. After analysing the effect of institutional reforms on old-age income and wage, we examine whether households adjust their savings behaviour to a change in their individual unemployment, income and health expectations. We use survey panel data on German household savings and expectations. The findings suggest, in contrast to the theory of textbook models, that a higher unemployment expectation significantly decreases the (short-term) saving rate. This result may be due to labour market legislation after the Hartz-Reforms.:1 Introduction 1 1.1 Summary 3 1.2 Contribution to the literature 7 1.3 References 9 2 A Fragile Pillar: Statutory Pensions and the Risk of Old-age Poverty in Germany 11 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 The German Statutory Pension Insurance 13 2.3 Methodology 16 2.4 Results 22 2.4.1 Male pensioners 22 2.4.2 Female pensioners 25 2.4.3 Relevance of skill 27 2.5 Sensitivity Analysis 31 2.6 Conclusion 34 2.7 References 37 2.8 Appendix 40 3 Is There a Growing Risk of Old-age Poverty in Eastern Germany? 44 3.1 Introduction 44 3.2 The German Pension System 46 3.3 Demographic Setting in Eastern Germany 48 3.4 Data and Methodology 49 3.5 Single-person Households 52 3.5.1 Males 52 3.5.2 Females 55 II 3.6 Two-Person-Households 57 3.7 Widows 62 3.8 Conclusion 64 3.9 References 65 3.10 Appendix 66 4 Unemployment Compensation and Wages: Evidence from the German Hartz-Reform 68 4.1 Introduction 68 4.2 The German Hartz-Reform 69 4.3 Data 71 4.4 Methodology 73 4.5 Results 76 4.6 Conclusions 82 4.7 References 84 4.8 Data 87 4.9 Appendix 88 5 Expectations and Saving Behavior: An Empirical Analysis 93 5.1 Introduction 93 5.2 Theoretical Discussion 95 5.3 Data 97 5.4 Empirical Strategy 100 5.5 Empirical Results 104 5.6 Conclusions 114 5.7 References 117 5.8 Data 119 5.9 Appendix 12