Stable Parameter Identification Evaluation of Volatility

Using the dual Black-Scholes partial differential equation, Dupire derived an explicit formula, involving the ratio of partial derivatives of the evolving fair value of a European call option (ECO), for recovering information about its variable volatility. Because the prices, as a function of maturity and strike, are only available as discrete noisy observations, the evaluation of Dupire’s formula reduces to being an ill-posed numerical differentiation problem, complicated by the need to take the ratio of derivatives. In order to illustrate the nature of ill-posedness, a simple finite difference scheme is first used to approximate the partial derivatives. A new method is then proposed which reformulates the determination of the volatility, from the partial differential equation defining the fair value of the ECO, as a parameter identification activity. By using the weak formulation of this equation, the problem is localized to a subregion on which the volatility surface can be approximated by a constant or a constant multiplied by some known shape function which models the local shape of the volatility function. The essential regularization is achieved through the localization, the choice of the analytic weight function, and the application of integration-by-parts to the weak formulation to transfer the differentiation of the discrete data to the differentiation of the analytic weight function