J Rheumatol

Objective:To assess the association between change in walking speed over a 12-month period and risk of developing radiographic knee osteoarthritis (rKOA) over a 24-month period.Methods:We included participants without rKOA from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Change in walking speed was determined from a 20-meter walk assessment, calculated using walking speed at 12-month follow-up minus baseline speed and/or 24-month follow-up walking speed minus 12-month speed. Incident rKOA was defined as progressing to Kellgren-Lawrence grade 652 within 24 months (i.e., incidence between 12 and 36 or 24 and 48 months). Self-reported significant knee injury during the exposure period, age, body mass index (BMI), and Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE) score were adjusted for analytically.Results:We included 2,638 observations among 1,460 unique participants (58% female; 59\ub19 years, range: 45\u201379). The mean change in walking speed over 12 months was 0.001\ub10.13 m/s (range: 120.6271, 1.4968). Approximately 5% of the sample (n=122) developed rKOA over a 24-month period. After controlling for significant knee injury, age, BMI, and PASE score, we found an 8% relative increase in risk of developing rKOA for every 0.1m/s decrease in walking speed over a 12-month period (Risk Ratio=1.08; 95% CI =1.00, 1.15; P = 0.05).Conclusion:Evaluating change in speed over a 12-month period using a 20-meter walk test may be useful in identifying individuals at increased risk of developing rKOA over the subsequent 24-months. Identification of patients at high risk for developing rKOA would allow medical providers to implement early interventions to maximize joint health.R49 CE002479/CE/NCIPC CDC HHS/United StatesN01 AR022261/AR/WHI NIH HHS/United StatesN01 AR022258/AR/WHI NIH HHS/United StatesN01 AR022259/AR/WHI NIH HHS/United StatesN01 AR022262/AR/WHI NIH HHS/United StatesN01 AR022260/AR/WHI NIH HHS/United States2018-08-01T00:00:00Z28572470PMC6061917vault:2767