QUICS D.6.7 - A Framework for the application of uncertainty analysis

<p>This deliverable provides a framework for the application of uncertainty analysis in<br> integrated urban water modelling. Its structure aims to provide a help for modellers by<br> including the different uncertainties into a good modelling approach. Therefore, next to<br> extensive literature for further information, a real world case study, which exemplary shows<br> the approach, is included.<br> It is an implementation of existing frameworks for a global assessment of modelling<br> uncertainties and uncertainty propagation analysis into a step-wise integrated urban water<br> modelling approach, while expanding the scope of uncertainties incorporated. The idea is<br> to see uncertainty analysis not as a standalone and separate process from the usual<br> modelling workflow but as an integral part of it.<br> The process to construct and apply an integrated model can be subdivided into seven<br> steps until a final report and assessment can be made. The assembled model and the<br> sub-models applied need to be revised and if necessary refined with every step, creating a<br> feedback loop for the model. Contemporaneously with this process, a thorough continuous<br> documentation of the information, data, changes and assumptions applied during the<br> process and the uncertainties of the beforementioned should be included to enable third<br> parties to comprehend what has been done, what information the in- and output data can<br> provide and how reliable are those results for further decision making. The treatment of<br> uncertainties is incorporated here not as one step included in model analysis or calibration,<br> but as a continuous work accompanying the entire integrated modelling process.