A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed and are in use; however, the effects of various data issues and design choices (statistical versus mechanistic methods, for example) on the accuracy of these approaches have not been thoroughly assessed. Here, we compare the accuracy of three forecasting approaches—a mechanistic method, a weighted average of two statistical methods and a super-ensemble of eight statistical and mechanistic models—in predicting seven outbreak characteristics of seasonal influenza during the 2016–2017 season at the national and 10 regional levels in the USA. For each of these approaches, we report the effects of real time under- and over-reporting in surveillance...
<div><p>Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in ter...
Probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting of infectious disease targets have been an important tool u...
Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We con...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
Reliable forecasts of influenza-associated hospitalizations during seasonal outbreaks can help healt...
Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and wo...
Accurate prediction of flu activity enables health officials to plan disease prevention and allocate...
Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term...
<div><p>Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreak...
Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term...
Reliable forecasts of influenza-associated hospitalizations during seasonal outbreaks can help healt...
OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many w...
Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked wi...
<div><p>Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in ter...
Probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting of infectious disease targets have been an important tool u...
Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We con...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
A variety of mechanistic and statistical methods to forecast seasonal influenza have been proposed a...
Reliable forecasts of influenza-associated hospitalizations during seasonal outbreaks can help healt...
Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and wo...
Accurate prediction of flu activity enables health officials to plan disease prevention and allocate...
Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term...
<div><p>Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreak...
Health planners use forecasts of key metrics associated with influenza-like illness (ILI); near-term...
Reliable forecasts of influenza-associated hospitalizations during seasonal outbreaks can help healt...
OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many w...
Accurate forecasts could enable more informed public health decisions. Since 2013, CDC has worked wi...
<div><p>Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in ter...
Probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting of infectious disease targets have been an important tool u...
Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We con...