Evolution of the blossoming day of apple in Weiz from 1951 to 2100 from the 5-year smoothed multi-model mean (green line) plus standard deviation (green shading) as well as from phenological observations from 1951 to 2006 (gray line).

<p>Potential frost damages (temperatures below –2.2°C occurring within 10 days after blossoming) are indicated for different regional climate models under RCP4.5 (colored dots). The dot size indicates how many grid points around Weiz are affected. Note that climate projections are not initialized with recent climate observations so that the variability of the simulated blossoming in the historical period does not match the observations.