Global mean temperature and global mean sea surface temperatures and their uncertainties: 1850-June 2018

<div> <p> The animations show global mean temperature (blue to red) and global mean sea-surface temperature (blue to green) anomalies from the HadCRUT.4.6.0.0 (Morice et al. 2012) and HadSST.3.1.1.0 (Kennedy et al. 2011a and b) data sets. The base period in each case is 1961-1990</p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Each animation cycles through the 100 ensemble members that constitute the data set with additional random draws from the other uncertainty components not represented in the ensemble: measurement and sampling uncertainty, and coverage uncertainty.</p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Measurement and sampling uncertainty is represented by an AR(1) series with a lag correlation of 0.16. Coverage uncertainty has a covariance modelled on the global mean of available observations. The correlation falls linearly from 1 to 0.2 up to separations of 30 years and then from 0.2 to 0.0 over the next 130 years. This is an adaptation of the method used by Guttorp and Kim (2013). The standard deviations of the measurement and sampling uncertainty and the coverage uncertainty are taken from the annual global temperature series sourced from the website below.</p> <p> </p> <p> Data are available from :</p> <p> <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4</a></p> <p> <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3</a> </p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Guttorp, P. and T.Y. Kim, 2013: Uncertainty in Ranking the Hottest Years of U.S. Surface Temperatures. J. Climate, 26, 6323–6328, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00760.1 </p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Kennedy, J. J., N. A. Rayner, R. O. Smith, D. E. Parker, and M. Saunby (2011), Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i>, 116, D14103, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015218. </p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Kennedy, J. J., N. A. Rayner, R. O. Smith, D. E. Parker, and M. Saunby (2011), Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization, <i>J. Geophys. Res.</i>, 116, D14104, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015220. </p> <p> <br> </p> <p> Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017187. </p> <p><br> </p> <b></b><i></i><u></u><br></div><div><b></b><i></i><u></u><b></b><i></i><u></u><br>