Uncertain Futures: Imaginaries, Narratives, and Calculation in the Economy

Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.1. An Introduction to Uncertain Futures Jens Beckert and Richard Bronk Section I The Nature of Expectations in Modern Political Economies 2. Expectations, Narratives, and Socio-Economic Regimes Robert Boyer 3. Conviction Narrative Theory and Understanding Decision-Making in Economics and Finance David Tuckett 4. Arctic Futures: Expectations, Interests, Claims, and the Making of Arctic Territory Jenny Andersson Section II The Strange World of Economic Forecasting 5. The Interactional Foundations of Economic Forecasting Werner Reichmann 6. Escaping the Reality Test: How Macroeconomic Forecasters Deal with 'Errors' Olivier Pilmis 7. Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Modelling Andrew G. Haldane Section III The Role of Narratives and Planning in Central Banking 8. A Tractable Future: Central Banks in Conversation with their Publics Douglas R. Holmes 9. Central Bank Planning? Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Price of Bending the Yield Curve Benjamin Braun Section IV Constructing Futures in Finance 10. Predicted Uncertainty: Volatility Calculus and the Indeterminacy of the Future Elena Esposito 11. Uncertain Meanings of Risk: Calculative Practices and Risk Conceptions in Credit Rating Agencies Natalia Besedovsky Section V Managing Expectations in Innovative Business 12. Processing the Future: Venture Project Evaluation at American Research and Development Corporation (1946–1973) Martin Giraudeau 13. Discounting and the Making of the Future: On Uncertainty in Forest Management and Drug Development Liliana Doganova 14. The Dilemma between Aligned Expectations and Diversity in Innovation: Evidence from Early Energy Technology Policies Timur Erge