Ungoverned Space'and the Oil Find in Turkana, Kenya

In developing countries, mineral wealth has usually failed to benefit most people at both national and local levels. Conflicts between locals and investors and/or governments over perceived lack of local opportunities and negative impacts such as environmental degradation are common. In 2012 a substantial reserve of oil was struck in Turkana, north-west Kenya, bringing hopes of boosting the national and local economy, and leading to grand-scale plans for infrastructure development across the region. However, conflicts over land rights, job opportunities and tenders have already begun to emerge, leading to the brief withdrawal of Tullow Oil staff from the site in 2013. Turkana has a number of existing security challenges, such as rampant cross-border and inter-ethnic livestock raids, a high prevalence of illegal small arms and low state penetration of security with an over-reliance on armed civilian volunteer forces (the Kenya Police Reserve). This work argues that in this ‘ungoverned’ context the risk for protracted social conflict focused around the oil, and furthermore for regional instability is high, such as has been seen elsewhere in the continent’s recent history