Die Auswirkung diverser ökonomischer Faktoren auf den Rohölpreis und die daraus resultierenden weltwirtschaftlichen Konsequenzen

The main goal of this thesis is to examine various factors that determine the price of crude oil. The analysis shows that the interdependency between the crude oil price and the global economic situation has shifted over the past decades. The oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s and the behaviour of the oil price throughout the twenty-first century give some indication of the change of this relationship. Furthermore, OPECs market power and the role of supply and demand elasticities are taken into account. Alternative energies, fracking and the behaviour of supply and demand in several market conditions are considered in the determination process of the crude oil price. In consequence of the prevailing low values of elasticities and the limited number of substitutes in the crude oil market, price rigging and the regulation of oil supply becomes apparent. This yields higher profits for companies and countries acting in this sector, especially for OPEC. Nevertheless, the analysis shows that OPECs market power varies from time to time and is strongly linked to the conditions in the global market. This positive correlation ensures that no oil price increase can be enforced in a period of falling demand. An important role for the determination of the crude oil price can be found in expectations by global demand towards future oil supply. Increasing inventory demand due to tightening oil supply conditions usually result in higher demand for oil, hence higher oil prices. Given the fact that crude oil is a finite resource that cannot be produced endlessly, future price increases are likely. This process can be slowed by the development of alternatives and the possibility to substitute oil. Innovations and improvement of these alternatives can shift demand toward renewable energy sources. In conclusion, there is an upward trend for the future price of crude oil. However, the actual future price of oil will strongly depend on the impact of each factor