An Analysis on the Economic Effects of FTA on Korea's Trade

??? ????????? ????????? FTA????????? ?????? ????????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????? FTA?????? ?????? ??????????????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????????? ??????. ??????????????????????????? ???????????? ????????????(DID)???????????? ?????? ????????? FTA???????????? ?????????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ?????? FTA?????? ???????????? ????????? ????????????. ????????? 71??? ?????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ??????????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? ????????????. ????????????(Hausman) ????????? ????????? ??????????????????(Random Effect Model)?????? ??????????????????(Fixed Effect Model)??? ??????????????? ???????????? ??? ??? ??????. ???????????? ????????? ????????? ??????, ????????? ????????? ????????? ?????? GDP??? 1??????GDP??? ???????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ??????????????? ????????? ????????? ????????? ????????????, ??????, ?????? ????????? ???????????? ???(-)??? ????????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ??????????????? ??? ?????? ????????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ??? ??? ?????????, ??????, ????????????(DID)?????? ?????? ????????????FTA????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????????????????? ?????? ????????? ????????????. ???????????????DID????????? ?????? FTA????????????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ?????? ????????? ??????????????? ?????? ????????? ???????????? FTA????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? FTA?????? ????????? ????????????????????? ?????? ???????????? ????????? ????????????.This paper shows the trade promoting effect of Korea FTA through panel gravity model and DID(Different in Different) estimator. The model was estimated for aggregate exports and imports using an annual panel dataset covering 71 countries from 1995 through 2012. According to the results of the empirical analysis, first of all, the result shows Korea trade similar to the premise of basic gravity equation with the trading partners. Secondly, to control the specific characteristics of the Korean, we add exchange rate variable, which has a negatively significant effect on Korea trade. It reflects the ratio of export is higher than import in the total trade volumes. And the exchange rate is sensitive to the trade effects. Thirdly, as a result of the DID estimator, there is an enhancing effect on the trade volumes when we compare the conclusion of the FTA to the preparing the FTA signed with Korea. Therefore, the positive significant on the conclusion of the FTA through the DID estimator present a positive outlook of the trade effects on the preparing the FTA signed with Korea. Conclusion of the FTA, Trade Effects, Panel Gravity Model, DID(Different in Different) Estimato