Seasonal variability of rice prices, temporal and spatial business opportunities in the major rice production areas of Tanzania

A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF SOKOINE UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE. MOROGORO, TANZANIA.Rice farmers have a tendency to sell their rice right after harvesting, thus they have been facing low rice prices which lead to low income, consumption of other food items and welfare. This study assessed the seasonal rice price variation, its magnitude and identified the opportunities in time and space for rice farmers and traders in Tanzania. The five leading rice producing regions; Mbeya, Morogoro, Mwanza, Tabora and Shinyanga were selected to represent rice markets in Tanzania. The selection of these markets allowed comparisons of marketing opportunities within and between regions. The ratio to moving average was employed in the analysis of the time series data from 1996-2012 obtained from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing in Tanzania. Basing on Coefficient of variation, the results indicated that seasonality existed as prices were the highest in April and the lowest in August. Thus, farmers would gain more by storing rice during the harvest period for future sale around April when prices were high. With respect to business opportunity between regions, the results show that the prospect for inter-regional rice trade was better when Gross real return to storage per unit distance increased between pairs of the markets. However, nearby inter-regional trade is more profitable as compared to far distance. Long-term analysis of market information is crucial to inform inter regional trade decisions and minimize vulnerability level resulting from seasonal price variability