HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS ANTARA PERTUMBUHAN DAN EKSPOR DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 1980-2013

ABSTRACT RENDRA ADE PUTRA. “Causality Relationship Between Growth And Export In Indonesia Years Of 1980-2013”. Thesis.The Education of Cooperation Economic.Economic and AdministrationMajor.Faculty of Economic.State University of Jakarta. 2015. Lecturer Advisor :DR. Saparuddin M, SE., M.Si andDicky Iranto, SE., M.SE. This research is aims to investigate causality relationship between growth and export in Indonesia over the past 34 years. The data used in this research are the secondary data which is time series type. Variables that were used in research are Gross Domestic Product and Exports, annual data 1980-2013 period and gathered from World Bank and United Nations Statistics Division(UNSD). The method of this research isVAR (Vector Auto Regression). The technique of data analysis in this research are Unit Root Test, Lag Length Criteria, Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test with assisted process using Eviews 7 software. The research result showed there were longterm balance relationship between GDP and exports, indicated by trace statistic value (25,15)>critical value (15,49) and maximum eigenvalue statistic (19,78) > critical value (14,26) at 5% significance or probability <critical value (0.05). And There was no causality relationship between GDP and exports in Indonesia during the period of research, but having one directional relationship which causality running from exports to GDP, indicated by probability value exports significant, -3,06