Strukturelle und produktionstechnische Determinanten der Ressourceneffizienz: Untersuchung von Pfadabhängigkeiten, strukturellen Effekten und technischen Potenzialen auf die zukünftige Entwicklung der Rohstoffproduktivität (DeteRess): Abschlussbericht. Forschungskennzahl 3712 93 321 UBA-FB 002614

The project "Structural and Technical Determinants of Resource Efficiency: Analysis of Path Dependencies, Structural Effects and Technological Potentials on the Future Development of Raw Material Productivity (DeteRess)" assessed the chances and limitations of a technology-oriented dematerialization policy in Germany using an environmental-economic model. Scenarios were developed to estimate the effect of changes in the material-intensive sectors of energy, construction and transport. The scenario “Expected Future Development (AZE)" estimates raw material use in 2030 based on known general developments and already adopted policies and measures to be implemented in the future. The scenario “Technological Change” (TW) shows the additional reduction potential resulting from the use of selected innovative technologies.According to the trend scenario, total raw material productivity (GDP + imports / RMIabiot+biot) is estimated to double until 2030 compared to 1994. The observed annual increase in total raw material productivity of 1.3 % between 2000 and 2010 is exceeded with 1.8 % for the years 2010 – 2030. The results show furthermore that total raw material use of the German economy is estimated to decline. Important levers are the transition to renewable energies and declining area sealing. In comparison, possibilities to increase raw material productivity with innovative technologies in the areas of substitution, material efficiency and recycling are smaller, but still significant. While the considered technologies do not cover the entire technological potential of the economy, they show the largest reduction potential in the most material intensive sectors. In total, their implementation would lead to an in-crease of total raw material productivity by 112 % compared to 1994. Hence, the results of the project show that a technology-oriented dematerialization policy can contribute to both: A reduction in primary raw material use and an increase in total raw material productivity