Analysis on the Effects of Environmental Policies for Deregulated Electricity Market using Multi-Agent Model

Power generation by the combustion of fossil fuels is a major source of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.As a study shows that in fiscal year 2005, 38% of Japan’s CO2 emissions came from power generation [1].Therefore, how to mitigate the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the power sector is critical to anation’s overall environmental achievement./ With no doubt that environmental regulations will rise generation cost. Policy makers have to make sure that the increased electricity price is within the range that is acceptable both by power companies and by customers, and meanwhile achieve the most CO2 emissions reduction. To achieve this goal is not easy, especially when facing a liberalized electricity market, making the problem more complicated. / In order to gain insights into the changes of electricity market due to certain environmental policies and to assess the effectiveness of the policies, this work employed a multi-agent based model to simulate the liberalized electricity market under environmental regulations./ In the first chapter we gave a brief introduction of the global warming by focusing on the global power generation sector. The current electricity market of Japan, based on which our simulation was conducted was also introduced in this chapter./ The description of the basic elements of our model was given in the second chapter. Our model was developed based on multi-agent with the suppliers modeled as self-adaptive agents using Reinforcement Learning algorithm./ In the third chapter, we developed the model to evaluate the Carbon Tax and the Emission Trading policies. From the simulation results, the changes of market performance with the increasing of environmental cost were discussed. And the effectiveness of these policies on CO2 emissions reduction was also investigated. The simulation of this chapter was based on the wholesale electricity market of Japan, which has been fully liberalized./ Based on the model in chapter 2, we built a model for assessing the CO2 free electricity trading in chapter 4. The pilot trading has been started in the JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange), so the simulation of this chapter was based on the JEPX. We discussed how the suppliers and the demander changed their actions after the introduce of the CO2 free market. In this chapter the results of our model were also be compared to the results got by using the least-cost approach./ At last in the fifth chapter was the conclusions of this study and the future works.報告番号: ; 学位授与年月日: 2009-03-23 ; 学位の種別: 修士 ; 学位の種類: 修士(工学) ; 学位記番号: ; 研究科・専攻: 工学系研究科電気工学専