On supporting design decisions in conceptual design addressing specification uncertainties using performance simulation

Building performance simulation (BPS) is a powerful technique to predict the performance of a design proposal. It is extensively used towards the end of the design process to, for example, prove code compliance. However, its potential to provide design guidance early in the design process is rarely exploited. That is although decisions taken during conceptual design have a disproportionate impact on the final building performance, relative to time and effort consumed (Domeschek et al, 1994). To intensify the use of BPS early is to extend its capabilities. One issue to be addressed is the building performance uncertainty due to a wide range of plausible (uncertain) design decisions. A case study was conducted to evaluate the use and potential of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in BPS to support conceptual design. It was found that the techniques can be implemented with little effort. The results are promising for making explicit design decisions and for improving inter-design team communication