Rainfall over the Central-Western Mediterranean basin in the period 1951-1995. Part I: precipitation trends

Climatic changes due to the anthropic enhancement of the greenhouse effect could modify the hydrological cycle, resulting in a reduction of the precipitation over the Mediterranean basin. In particular, a negative trend over the Italian peninsula could occur with prolonged periods of dryness as that recorded in the biennium 1988-1990. In order to verify if a climatic variability is already detectable, the pluviometric regime over the Central-Western Mediterranean is here analysed for the period 1951-1995. The analysis indicates that a reduction of about 20% in the total precipitation has occurred, which is statistically significant and can have serious impact on the availability of the water supplies