Umeå 200 000 invånare : En fallstudie av ett befolkningsmåls genomförbarhet

Population growth is something that many Swedish municipalities strive for. Out of the 290 municipalities in the country, 115 of them have population targets and 103 state that they are targeting an increased population. Umeå in the north of Sweden is one of those municipalities and has a vision to have 200,000 inhabitants by the year of 2050. This study aims to critically exam Umeå municipality’s likelihood on fulfilling its vision to have 200,000 inhabitants. Furthermore, the aim is to illustrate the municipality’s planning regarding the spatial distribution of this population growth. This is done by comparing historical average growth data with population projections and the average growth which is required to fulfill the vision. Neither the historical average growth, latest ten years or the population projection done by Umeå is sufficient for the municipality to reach 200,000 inhabitants. Among other growth processes, the number of employments in the municipality need to increase to be able to reach the population target. The municipality estimates that 94,000 jobs are required, which is an additional 33,800 from current levels. Neither the historical growth rate last 32 years or the more current last ten years’ rate is sufficient for the number required year 2050.The assessment is that it is unlikely that the municipality will achieve its population target as the rate of growth required is that much higher than both current growth levels and the projected levels in the near future. Even if the goal would to be unattained, the question can be asked if it should be considered as a failure since the municipality still is projected to be under growth, just not to the extent of the targeted levels