Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordClimate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.The authors acknowledge support from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the preparation of the International Dimensions Assessment of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. W.N.A. acknowledges support from High-end Climate Impacts and Extremes project of the EU. S.S. would like to acknowledge the financial support of Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the EPA Research Programme 2014–2020, of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, and of the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment through the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment