Updating the Born rule

Despite the tremendous empirical success of quantum theory there is still widespread disagreement about what it can tell us about the nature of the world. A central question is whether the theory is about our knowledge of reality, or a direct statement about reality itself. Current interpretations of quantum theory, regardless of their stance on this question, regard the Born rule as fundamental and add an independent state update (or 'collapse') rule to describe how quantum states change upon measurement. In this paper we present an alternative perspective and derive a unified probability rule that subsumes both the Born rule and the collapse rule. We show that this more fundamental probability rule can provide a rigorous foundation for informational, or 'knowledge-based', interpretations of quantum theory. Our result requires an assumption of instrument non-contextuality, a key notion that generalises previous approaches to non-contextuality. Therefore, the framework also permits one to consider non-contextuality in scenarios with arbitrary causal structure