A contribution of dynamical systems theory and epidemiological modeling to a viral marketing campaign

Nowadays, the interest in analyze and study the behavior of uncontrollable nature phenomena related to the impact of marketing campaigns is an action of prime importance to prevent chaotic dynamics. In this paper we assess the influence of Dynamical Systems theory and Mathematical Epidemiology on a real viral marketing campaign: Dove Real Beauty Sketches, based on a SIR epidemiological model. Motivated by the overwhelming success of this campaign, we study the mathematical properties and dynamics of the campaign real data - from the parameters estimation and its sensitivity to the stability of the mathematical model, simulated in Matlab. Mathematically, we show not only that the campaign was a viral epidemic, but also that it can be leveraged and optimized by epidemiological and mathematical modeling, which offer important guidelines to maximize the impact of a viral message and minimize the uncertainty related to the conception and outcome of new marketing campaigns.This work was supported in part by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT - Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia), through CIDMA - Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications, within project UID/MAT/04106/2013; and through Algoritmi R&D Center, under COMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043 within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/2013.