The Convergence Pattern in the Latter Economic Development: Evidence from 1959-2016 U.S. Counties

In the early literature, the empirical evidence showed that the rate of economic convergence is close to 2%. This paper reexamined the convergence pattern of U.S. counties from 1959-2015 and explored the potential impact of the net migration rate and population density on the rate of convergence. By investigating both the ordinary least square and quantile regression estimates, this paper found out the convergence pattern for the latter economic development period differed from that in the early period. This change is mainly featured by a close to zero convergence rate after 1979. Furthermore, for counties starting off at a relatively low GDP per capita level, no significant economic convergence was observed during the period 1979-2005. Net migration rate didn’t show to have a significant impact on the rate of convergence. Population density has a double effect on the economic growth and can partly account for the change in the rate of convergence in the latter economic development period