Logic-probable approach to the determination of the risk-sustainable strategy of the region and enterprises

The article describes a logical-probabilistic approach to the definition of crisis situations that threaten economic security. The onset of risk events of any kind entails two types of damage - direct economic and social damage, and indirect damage, which can be much more significant. The main strategic goal of ensuring economic security is the stable and most efficient functioning of the enterprise at present and ensuring its high potential for future development. The lack of a unified management mechanism due to systemic threats imposed on the economy as a whole led to an exacerbation of the situation primarily in the basic sectors (infrastructure, health, education, law enforcement). This, in turn, is the destructor of the basis for development and ensuring national security of the regions and the country as a whole, contributing to a decrease in the standard of living and quality of life of the population. Methods and methods of risk and safety management require the use of analysis covering all types of possible threats, such as engineering, economic, social factors, etc. And they must also take into account not only existing, but also remote consequences of the decisions made. The choice of a strategy for responding to a risk situation relies on the results of a comprehensive risk assessment, additional analysis of the technological and economic potential of the Voronezh region and industrial enterprise, the projected external environment, the current legal and regulatory framework (taxes, inflation, increase in the number of competitors), marketing and other studies. The organization of a risk management system based on their integrated assessment allows tracking and timely signaling of undesirable events in business activities