The Study of Eye Disease Incidence and the Design of Medical Insurance

[[abstract]]由於3C時代的來臨，大幅改變了現代人的生活型態，國人過度依賴手機、電腦等電子產品，且長時間姿勢不良或近距離使用下，導致眼睛疾病患者大幅增加，以及眼睛疾病提早發生的趨勢。根據衛福部統計，眼及其附屬器官疾病患者增加近62.5萬人。其中白內障、慢性結膜炎、近視及青光眼罹病人數大幅增加，分別是27.6、25、20及12.5萬人，在短短十年內罹患眼睛疾病的患者人數明顯劇增，且發病年齡下降，再加上現今科技醫療的進步（如近視雷射手術、晶體手術等），國人醫療需求與費用會相對的提高，而購買醫療保險是規避風險常見的方法。 本研究採用全民健康保險資料庫2005年100萬抽樣歸人檔，使用2003年至2013年承保資料檔（ID）、門診處方及治療明細檔（CD）進行探索性分析，計算眼睛相關疾病(視網膜病變、黃斑部病變、青光眼、白內障等）之盛行率、首發率及手術發生率（眼瞼手術、角膜手術、虹膜與睫狀體鞏膜及前房之手術、晶體手術、視網膜與脈絡膜與玻璃體及後房之手術）等，並使用修勻方法減少年齡層間之波動性後，以Lee-Carter模型（Lee and Carter，1992）進行預測，進而設計年輕族群20年定期眼睛醫療保險，提供給年輕人風險控管及保險公司參考。 Since the advent of the era of 3C, there has been a significant change in the way we lived. Nowadays, mobile phones, computers and other electronic products become indispensable to us. According to research from Ministry of Health and Welfare, the number of patients with diseases of the eye and adnexa growth nearly 625,000. Those including cataract, chronic conjunctivitis, myopia and glaucoma, there was a significant increase in the number of patients respectively ( cataract:27.6, chronic conjunctivitis:25, myopia:20 and glaucoma:12 million people). In the short ten years, the number of patients suffering from eye diseases increased dramatically and the age of patients with eye disease dropped relatively. Furthermore, the improvement of modern medical science and technology may treat or alleviate the disease. All of the causes above charge a high price; hence the purchase of medical insurance is a common way to avoid risks. The estimation of the prevalence rate and incidence rate of eye-related disease from 2003 to 2013 was based on one million samples in 2005 of the National Health Insurance research database. We reduce the fluctuation of age by the graduation method and use Lee-Carter model for fitting and forecast. Then, we design the eye medical insurance policy for the young people, providing the risk controls for insurance company