The implications of demand response measures and electrification of transport on UK household energy demand and consumption

This study has been undertaken to gain a better understanding on how the residential electricity demand and consumption values might evolve in the medium term in a future built environment benefiting from renewable energy systems and storage technologies. Analysis and modeling of winter and summer electricity demand and consumption data in four scenarios for 2030 was performed, after the establishment of a baseline scenario in 2015 (BS 2015). The scenarios in 2030 included the business as usual scenario (BAU 2030), a scenario assuming electrification of heating and energy efficiency measures (EE 2030), a scenario in which demand response measures are also considered (DR 2030) and a scenario in which one electric vehicle (EV) is assumed for each house as well (Te 2030). Electricity demand and consumption ranges for different scales at the distribution level for each scenario were derived. It was concluded that properties with currently low peak demand values are bound to experience a much higher peak in the early morning hours in winter under the Te 2030 scenario than properties with already high peak demand. This would signify a new peak at a new time. In terms of electricity consumption in 2030, the energy efficiency measures would counterbalance the increase of electricity consumption due to the inclusion of the EV in winter, so the consumption in Te 2030 is found to be similar to the consumption in BAU 2030. The analysis also demonstrated the need to explore the potential role of thermal storage versus electricity storage in buildings