Beyond the Arms Race: Explaining the Modernization of Naval and Associated Air Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific (2001-2016)

This thesis addresses the question of whether it is possible to construct a generic explanation for the current modernization of many armed forces in the Asia-Pacific, specifically in the naval domain. It argues that the concept of “arms race or arms racing,” although widely employed and the subject of a voluminous literature, is in fact a rather weak analytical device for explaining these armament dynamics. Consequently, the thesis sets out to explain the factors driving the modernization of naval and associated air capabilities in key Asia-Pacific countries between 2001 and 2016. The primary motivations behind these armament dynamics ranged from a fear of US withdrawal from the region, the rise of China, enhancing self-defense requirements, and maritime territorial disputes. Due to the assumption that these armament dynamics are competitive it has become tempting for scholars and the media to label such strategic behavior of the use of force as an “arms race,” broadly understood as a progressive and competitive increase in armaments by two or more states resulting from conflicting purposes or mutual fears. The analysis of the case studies demonstrates that “arms race” theories are of limited utility as they strip states of any purposeful involvement in the armament process. The dissertation argues that a new set of propositions to understand interactive armament dynamics is needed. Responding and interacting to one or more opponents’ armaments implies that decision-makers have deemed an armaments policy necessary to secure state survival in response to a perceived threat. As states are reacting to their broader strategic environment rather than a single adversary, interactive arming must involve two or more actors, and both qualitative and quantitative changes must be present. Interactive arming dynamics also exhibits highly competitive security behavior that does not directly involve the armed forces. This can take the form of enhanced strategic partnerships, intelligence-sharing, and defense technology transfers. This is often a response to a perceived asymmetry in a relationship, in which a country acknowledges that its armed forces will never be equal to a potential opponent’s