Patterns of Political Party Competition, Dominance and Institutionalism: The Case of Timor-Leste

This thesis focuses on CNRT’s displacement of FRETILIN as the dominant political player in Timor-Leste in 2007. CNRT, which led the coalition governments of 2007 and 2012, ended the political pre-eminence FRETILIN had won in 2001 on the basis of its prominence in the independence struggle. This thesis addresses three key questions with regard to the dynamics of political party interactions in Timor-Leste. First, what factors explain both change and stability in the party system? Second, why did FRETILIN’s political fortunes decline while those of CNRT rose? And third, what factors explain the strength and longevity of individual parties in Timor-Leste? Drawing on a variety of sources, including data obtained during fieldwork in Timor-Leste in both 2012 and 2013, this thesis argues that three main factors explain changes in the party system: absence or presence of charismatic leadership, the identity of the nation-building and state-building project and the operation of networks of distributive politics and patronage. These three factors were crucial in causing FRETILIN’s decline and facilitating CNRT’s near fulfillment of achieving the status of a dominant party. On the matter of party longevity, this thesis argues that while FRETILIN is positioned to carry on coherently into the future, the foundations of the other parties are shaky and their future durability looks precarious. The significance of this thesis is two-fold. First, it fills a gap in existing literature on Timor-Leste by providing a formal and contemporary analysis of political parties and the country’s party system. Second, this thesis throws light on the character and fate of dominant parties in the context of newly independent countries