Could native Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) still persist in northern England and southern Scotland?

Background: In the British Isles, Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is only thought to be native in the Scottish Highlands. However, there has been speculation that locally native specimens persist outside that region. Aims: This study addressed the question: is it bioclimatically plausible that locally native Scots pines could still persist in southern Scotland and northern England? Methods: The software package BIOCLIM, which has proved a useful tool for identifying possible locations of small populations and new species, was used to model current locations of Scots pine with climate surfaces. Based on this analysis, predictive maps were produced to identify where else in Scotland and northern England Scots pine might occur. Data were masked with soil types on which Scots pines naturally grow in Scotland to identify key areas where extant trees may still persist. Results: Results indicated that it is bioclimatically plausible that locally native Scots pines could persist in southern Scotland and northern England. However, further research is needed to confirm the natural origins of living Scots pines at particular locations. Conclusions: We propose investigations into the native status of Scots pine within the areas identified. If native Scots pines are verified outside the Scottish Highlands, this has significant implications for ecology and conservation