The Growth of Agricultural Output and Food Supply in Meiji Japan: Economic Miracle or Statistical Artifact?

It is generally accepted that agriculture played a crucial role in Japanese economic development during the Meiji period (1868-1912), which marks the country's first stage of industrialization. According to the most recent output estimates, churned out by the Long-Term Economic Statistics of Japan (LTES) project, value added in agriculture, measured in constant yen, increased at an impressive compound rate of 1.7% between 1874 and 1912, while the labor force as measured by the number of workers remained stable, suggesting dramatic productivity gains. Thi s article is organized into five sections. Section II sorts out the lessons to be drawn from past debates and controversies, Section III scrutinizes the plausibility of LTES output and consumption estimates, Section IV attempts to identify the sources of possible bias in output estimates, and Section V offers a conclusion