[[alternative]]The Policy Regulation of Macroeconomic Equilibrium under Different Exchange Rates in Taiwan—An Empirical Study of Mundell-Fleming Model

碩士商業教育學系[[abstract]]本研究係以Mundell-Fleming的小型開放經濟體系模型為理論基礎，並建構台灣總體開放經濟體系的迴歸模型，以台灣民國75年至89年止之各項總體經濟變數為研究樣本，採實證研究方式藉以探討台灣近十五年來，在固定及浮動匯率制度下總體經濟政策的相對有效性。 根據本文之實證研究結果發現：台灣總體經濟社會三市場（財貨市場、貨幣市場、外匯市場）之均衡曲線皆呈正斜率，與Mundell-Fleming模型理論有所不同，主要是因為實證結果顯示：在台灣投資為利率的遞增函數，而非理論上之遞減函數關係所致。但若將投資設為利率和領先指標之函數則利率對投資呈理論上之負相關。由各市場均衡曲線斜率值可知：LM線斜率大於IS線斜率大於BP線斜率，表示在台灣資金移動容易。就政策相對有效性之實證結果而言，無論在固定或浮動匯率制度下，擴張性貨幣政策之效果遠大於財政政策效果。若政府政策目標在達成充分就業的所得水準，則可採行擴張性的貨幣政策以提高所得；若政策目標在維持國際收支平衡則可採緊縮性的財政政策或擴張性貨幣政策以改善國際收支。[[abstract]]This article is based on the system of Mundell-Fleming small open economics to establish a regression model of open macroeconomic and further discuss the relative efficiencies of macroeconomic policy under fixed exchange rate and floating exchange rate. In addition, data of macroeconomic variables are sampling from 1986 to 2000. In the empirical result, the slopes of equilibrium curve are positive in three main markets, goods market, money market, and exchange rate market. However, those are different from the result of Mundell-Fleming model since the investment of Taiwan is the increasing function of interest rate not the decreasing function. Interest rate and investment are negative relation,if we assume as the investment function includes interest rate and leading index. These slopes of different equilibrium curves in different markets show that the slope of LM is greater than slope of BP, therefore, the capital mobility is less barrier. As the result of relative efficiency of policy we can see that the efficiency of expansionary monetary policy is greater than the efficiency of fiscal policy. Hence, we should adapt expansionary money policy for increasing income when government policy targets at the income level of full employment. Otherwise, we should adapt tighten fiscal policy or expansionary monetary policy for improving the balance of payments