Using importance to determine a service strategy in badminton

In this work we look at the optimal criteria for taking a long (risky) serve in badminton. A simulation model is built and describes the process in determining when to execute a serve based upon point importance. Importance is the likelihood of winning a game given you succeed in the next point, against winning a game given you do not win the next point. By considering different types of player serve and return combinations, we explore the variations in game probabilities to ascertain the ideal time to execute a risky serve for each approach. Whilst many racquet sports are able to be dominated by players with the best serve, this is untrue for badminton, where the serve is not perceived as an advantage as in tennis, especially as badminton rules do not allow for a second serve in case of fault on the first. Badminton players opt for a 'safe' short serve over a 'risky' long serve. In most cases, the need for the server to get the shuttle in play immediately results in the advantage of the receiver, and pressure for the server on the third shot. The rule developed in this paper identifies when 'high risk', or long serves, and 'low risk', or short serves, should be played during a match. Practical implications for this work are possible, given that the rules of badminton allow for coach intervention during a match in progress