A comparison of algorithms for calculating glaucoma change probability confidence intervals

PURPOSE To evaluate the ability to detect change in standard automated perimetry data using 4 different methods for calculating the glaucoma change probability (GCP). Results: Using GCP with confidence intervals built using the methods described in the literature (on the basis of defect and test-retest differences) resulted in a higher specificity than techniques based on mean threshold. However, the mean-based methods were more sensitive at detecting a decrease in a location. Building confidence intervals using the difference between a baseline and the current measurement (baseline-less-follow-up), rather than test-retest differences, also improved the detection of visual field progression. CONCLUSIONS: Stratifying baseline visual field measurements based on defect and eccentricity as described in the literature results in an unusually high specificity: 98% accuracy in classifying the same stable data that generated the 95% confidence intervals, rather than the expected 95% accuracy. By stratifying measurements based on mean threshold, and using baseline-less-follow-up rather than test-retest differences to build 95% confidence intervals, sensitivity is increased by 14.1%. This increase in sensitivity comes with a corresponding 2.2% decrease in specificity