Bilan des turbulences

Turbulences' check-up Département des diagnostics Western economies began their recovery one year ago, but it is still difficult to foresee jobs and capacities creations on the near term. National situations exhibit quite varied imprints of indebtedness and disindebtedness waves brought about by the deregulations and monetary policies. Continental Europe, Germany excepted, has achieved the curbing of corporate failures, but persistingly high real interest rates stand in the way of investment. Money and budget managements have been very upset by the swerves of the private demand. They will become clearer as turbulences move off. In Europe, reducing interest rates will be the only way to alleviate the fiscal austerity. In the United states the buoyant activity will reignite inflation, although an increased response to interest rates, and budget cuts, will check the demand during 1995. Japan is still striving towards slowing his production capacities growth ; public support is essential during 1994 to resume a moderate growth. In the United Kigdom, the activity is now heavily dependent on the internal demand, but the covering of the general government needs will limit the financial ressources of the private sector that will find itself short of equipments. Germany has definitely entered the disinflationary process, which allows the lowering of short term interest rates, but corporate accounts are not enough restored to boost investment. Recent tensions on bond yields betray the European subordination to capital markets. Savings are presently more drawn on in the United States, but also by the emerging markets the advance of which is dramatic. Asian dynamism has supported the world trade in 1993, a conflicting period for market shares. Trade developments will be faster (+ 6 % to + 7 % a year) and more balanced during 1994 et 1995. In France the recovery is mostly obvious in business surveys ; quantitative data are still scarce to confirm it. As long as the final demand dees not strengthen significantly, inventories bear the bulk of the ongoing adjustment. The economic policy attempts to reconcile several targets : the franc / mark parity, the lowering of interest rates, the support of activity, the checking of public deficits, the curbing of tax and contribution rates. When these targets prove to be inconsistent, the government is induced to get rather pragmatic. In 1994, GDP will grow by 1,1 %. The internal demand, excluding inventories, would rise somewhat from its depressed level of 1993. A weak increase of private consumption, a recovery of the real estate business and a sustained advance of public investment would go toward starting growth ; but the equipment spending by firms would be hardly stabilized, following their strong 1993 fall. In 1995 it would speed up, when inventories are considered satisfactory. GDP growth could then exceed 2,5 %, as both intenal and external demands would intensify. During both years, exports would increase more than imports. The French growth would thus benefit by the international environment, the domestic components of demand remaining subdued by some disindebtedness. A widening external surplus is forecasted, as well as a shrinking inflation. But the unemployment would keep spreading, this year, and would level off next year.année conflictuelle pour le partage des marchés. Le développement des échanges sera plus rapide (6 % à 7 % l'an) et plus équilibré en 1994 et 1995. En France, le redressement s'observe essentiellement dans les enquêtes d'opinion ; les évolutions quantitatives traduisent encore peu ces anticipations. En l'absence de regain significatif de la demande finale, les stocks constituent la variable majeure de l'ajustement en cours. La politique économique tente de concilier plusieurs objectifs : la défense du franc, la baisse des taux d'intérêt, le soutien de l'activité économique, la limitation du déficit public, la baisse des prélèvements obligatoires. Ces objectifs étant parfois contradictoires, cela a conduit le gouvernement à faire preuve d'un assez grand pragmatisme. En 1994, le PIB progresserait de 1,1 %. La demande intérieure hors stocks s'élèverait un peu après avoir reculé en 1993. Faible progression de la consommation des ménages, reprise de l'investissement en logements et progression soutenue de l'investissement public contribueraient à amorcer la croissance ; mais les dépenses d'équipement des entreprises seraient à peine stabilisées, après leur fort repli de 1993. En 1995, celles-ci s'accéléreraient et l'arrêt du déstockage favoriserait significativement la croissance. Celle-ci pourrait alors dépasser 2,5 %, les demandes interne et externe s' intensifiant. Chacune des deux années, la progression des exportations excéderait celle des importations. Ainsi, la croissance française serait d'abord portée par son environnement international, investissement et consommation intérieurs restant contraints par des logiques de désendettement. Elle ne se fera donc pas au détriment des soldes extérieurs. Elle ne se fera pas non plus au détriment de l'inflation qui décélérerait à nouveau. En revanche, le chômage continuerait de s'élever cette année et plafonnerait l'an prochain.Département des diagnostics de l'OFCE, Sigogne Philippe, Chagny Odile, Fayolle Jacky, Passet Olivier, Rifflart Christine, Milewski Françoise, Coquet Bruno, Daniel Jean-Marc, Péléraux Hervé. Bilan des turbulences. In: Revue de l'OFCE, n°49, 1994. pp. 7-102