Broad-scale analysis of morphological and climate impacts on coastal flood risk

A system of hydrodynamic, morphodynamic and reliability models have been coupled to generate insights into the effects of climate change and coastal management practices on coastal erosion and flood risk over 50km of coastline and up to 100 years in the future. Offshore wave conditions were propagated inshore using TOMAWAC and the SCAPE soft cliff and platform erosion model was then used to predict recession of the soft coastal cliffs, the effects of cliff protection and sediment supplies to low-lying down-drift coasts. A reliability model, based upon joint probabilities of wave heights and water levels, has been used to estimate the probability of failure of the sea dikes on the low-lying coast, and a simple 2D inundation model and GIS have been used to estimate flood risk. Copyright ASCE 2006.