Production input decisions of farmers in poverty and the alleviation of poverty

贫困农户面临脱贫机遇和陷入极端贫困风险时的生产经营投入决策，对改变贫困状态起到关键的作用。基于贫困地区农户的多期追踪调查数据，采用二分变量Logit模型，分析贫困农户的生产投入决策对贫困状态转变的影响，探讨贫困农户在资金有限的情况下摆脱贫困的方式，为贫困人口退出贫困的动力寻找理论源泉。结果表明，按照官方贫困线，样本农户的贫困发生率由2006年的20.7%下降到2009年的7.3%，每年的脱贫率为63.2%-71.7%。在农户的生产经营投入中，尽管对小商品经营活动的投入较少，但却得到较高的回报。那些有一定经济基础的贫困农户，当生产经营投入转向高风险、高回报的小商品经营活动，或提升生产经营投入的多元化水平时，脱贫的概率会显著提高。小商品经营活动中的投入增加1倍，其脱贫的概率大约会提高6%；生产经营投入由专业化转向完全的多元化，其脱贫的概率大约提高50%，但这些生产投入决策对那些处于极端贫困的农户却没有效果。研究表明，有一定经济基础的贫困农户可以通过改变生产经营投入决策退出贫困状态。因此，建议政府应该通过新技术的推广和信用支持，鼓励和引导有一定基础的贫困农户进入高收益的生产经营领域，增加农民的收入渠道。同时，通过完善社会保障体系来保障极端贫困人口的生活。Facing both the opportunity of exiting from poverty and the possibility of falling back into poverty, production input decisions of farmers in poverty plays a critical role. Using panel data from rural households in poor areas, this paper studies how production input decisions inlfuence the transition of poverty by logit model. This paper also explores how farmers in poverty can exit from poverty when lacking capital and seeks to find the theoretical foundation of exiting poverty for poor farmers. Results show that the poverty rate of sample decreased from 20.7%in 2006 to 7.3%in 2009, and the rate of exiting poverty was between 63.2%and 71.7%every year. Although there is a low input on small commodity business, the return is relatively high. Poor farmers, who have certain economic strength, are more likely to be out of poverty when they increase their inputs to high-risk, high-return tertiary industry or improve the diversiifcation level of production and operation inputs. Production inputs on small commodity business doubles, the probability of exiting poverty will increase by about 6%. From specialization to fully diversiifcation, the probability of exiting poverty will increase about 50%. However, this is an invalid method for the extreme poverty. While poor farmers with a certain capital accumulation can exit poverty by changing their production and operation input decisions. Therefore, to help farmers in extreme poverty, it is suggested that the government should extend new technology and supply credit support, encourage and guide farmers to enter the new ifeld of production with high-yield, and improve the rural social security.全国扶贫培训宣传中心扶贫高级人才培养工程金龙安华扶贫英才成长博士论文资助项目(201503)。中文核心期刊要目总览(PKU)中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC)中国科学引文数据库(CSCD)4747-7533