An Empirical Study on the Influence of the Government Financing on the Residents' Consumption---Analysis based on Panel Quantile Regression

文章采用1994-2014年全国28个省份的面板数据，在生命周期的理论框架下采用面板分位数据模型考察政府融资对城乡居民的消费影响；同时，在城乡不同分位点处检验了李嘉图等价定理及其在实践中存在差异性的原因。实证研究表明，债务对低消费水平的城镇和农村居民具有一定的财富效应，符合“凯恩斯主义”的政府债务观。但是高消费水平的阶层存在税债等价成立的情况，符合“李嘉图主义”的政府债务观。政府的融资方式在不同的消费群体上产生了异质性的政策效应，因此政府应该针对不同的城乡社会群体制定细化的财政政策。With macro panel data from 1994 to 2014, this paper investigates the impacts of government financing on the consum-ption of residents in the framework of LC-PIH theory by the Quantile Regression Model. The Ricardo equivalence theorem has been tested at different quantiles. The empirical study shows that debt has wealthy effects on the low consumption residents , in the line with the "Keynes doctrine" of the government debt concept. But the high consumption residents exist debt tax equivalent with the "Ricardo doctrine"of the government debt concept. The governments' financing methods have different policy effects on different consumer groups. Therefore, the government should formulate detailed fiscal policy for different urban and rural social groups.中文核心期刊要目总览(PKU)中国科技核心期刊(ISTIC)9102-10