Population dynamics and regional development in China

Population dynamics can be read as an outcome as well as a determinant of regional development. Using the national census data in 2000 and 2010, we employ the simultaneous equation models to revisit the interactions between population dynamics and economic development by incorporating the spatial discrepancy between Hukou (a residential registration system) and non-Hukou populations. The results show that economic development is capable of attracting more non-Hukou populations. Population growth fosters service development and exerts little influence on manufacturing sectors, where non-Hukou populations accounts for a larger portion than its counterpart. Our findings suggest that the Hukou system is still able to curb the population-development spiral predicted by new economic geography through delinking the economic and social improvement.National Natural Science Foundation of China [41425001]SSCIARTICLEhecanfei@pku.edu.cn; mxiyan@gmail.com3535-549